Sup retards, back at it with the DD/macro.submitted by TaxationIsTh3ft to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]
scroll to the rain man stuff after the crayons if you don't care about the why or how.
June 19 $250 SPY puts
May 20 $4 USO puts
SPY under 150 by January next year.
So I was going about my business, trying to not $ROPE myself as my sweet tendies I made during the waterfall of March have evaporated, however, I heard that the fed was adding another $2.3T in monopoly money to the bankers pile specifically to help facilitate these loan programs being rolled out.
In short, they are backing these dumb-ass, zero recourse, federally mandated, loans with printing press money.
But cumguzzler OP, your title is about inflation and guage simp--try, why are you talking about the fed #ban.
Well, when you print money it is an inflationary action in theory. Let me explain.
EDUMACATION TIMEWhat is inflation? Inflation is the sustained increase in the price level in goods and services. Inflation is derived from a general price index, and in the US, from the consumer price index. Knowing that inflation is an outcome, not a set policy is very important. Inflation is a measurement after the fact, much like your technical astrology indicators. (**ps, use order flow in your TA you wizards**)
HOWEVER, the actual act of buying bundles of these loans does not directly impact inflation.
Now what is Gauge symmetry? Gauge symmetry is a function of math and theoretical physics that can be applied to finance models. What a gauge is, is a measurement. Gauge symmetry is when the underlying variable of something changes, however, we do not observe that variable change.
A great example of this is if you and a friend are moving, and your friend is holding a box of tendies. The box is a cube, equal on all sides. If you turn away for a moment and she rotates the cube 90 degrees while you are not looking, and you look back - you would have no idea the cube was rotated. There was a very real change in the position of the cube in relation to space-time. Your friend acted on it. But you didn't measure it, in fact it would be impossible for you to determine if the box was changed at all if you weren't observing it. That movement of the box where you didn't observe it, is called gauge transformation and happens literally more then JPow fucks my mom in quantum physics. The object observably exactly the same even though it is not physically the same. The act of it existing as an observably the same box is gauge symmetry - it is by observation symmetrical.
Why this is important, is that fiat money doesn't have any absolute meaning. The value of $1 is arbitrary. furthermore, Inflation is a Guage symmetry. Inflation has no real impact on the real value of the underlying goods and services, but rather serves as a metric to measure the shift of value across a timeline.
When JPow starts pluggin' your mom along with all these balance sheets, there is a gauge symmetry event happening. The money he is printing is entering the system (gauge transformation), this isn't an issue if all pricing against the USD get shifted equally, however, the market is not accounting for this money because we don't have real-time data on what is being applied where, we only get a slow drip in terms of weekly and monthly reports. WE HAVE OUR EYES CLOSED. This is a gauge symmetry event.
When this happens in real terms, the market becomes dislocated from its real value price. Well how do we know there is a dislocation?
"YoU JuSt SaId tHe UnDeRlYiNg VaLuE iZ AbStRaCkKt HuRr QE aNd MaRkEtS Iz ComPlEx ReAd A TeXtBuK AbOuT FrAcTiOnAl ReSErVe BanKiNg YoU NeRd." - **anyone rationalizing the bull run**
We can look at Forex you fish.
USD lives in a bubble. The Yen is in a bubble, the RMB is in a bubble, and we exchange with each other. the Jap central bank has little effect on the CPI index (cost of goods and services) of the US. If the Yen prints a gazillion dollars, the USD is not effected EXCEPT in its exchange rate. YEN:USD would see a sizeable differential the more Yen is printed and vise-versa.
So NOW instead of JPow getting away with plowing your girlfriend, we can catch the bitch.
Instead of looking at the gauge transformation at face value and then giving up because it is symmetrical output, we can look and see if this gauge symmetry carries over to the foreign exchange market. Well guess what happens when you look at the value of the USD against foreign currencies.
Consistent uncertainty during the fed operations. Meaning the market of banks that partake in FX swaps don't know where to spot the USD. Generally a very very bad thing.
Value of the USD to Euro 2017-2020, notice the slow decline, then the chaos at the end
Above is the value of the USD to Euro, notice the sloping decline. The dollar has been growing weaker since 2017. At the end you see our present issues, lets #ENHANCE
USD to Euro, January 2020 to Present
When you see those spikes, those are days in between Fed action. The value of the US goes up when the fed doesn't print because people aren't spending. Non-spending is a deflationary event and has a direct impact on the CPI. However, each drop when you line up the dates, was a date of Fed spending.
Lets look outside of the Eurozone.
This is the RMB to USD. Yes China manipulates, but look at the end of the graph
China manipulated rates early in 2018 however you can see the steady incline upward towards the of 2018. More specifically, lets look at it since December.
RMB value against USD, January to Now
You Can see the Chinese RMB has been gaining steam since December, even with Chinese production falling off a cliff all through this pandemic.
What this rain man level autism means for the economy.Looking across the board at Forex we can see the USD having a schizo panic attack jumping up and down like me at a mathematics lecture.
But what does all this gauge BDSM and shit have to do with the markets? Well it shows 1 of 3 things are occuring.
It is very important to understand that inflation is only a measurement, and itself does not denote value of real goods and services.
Option 1 of a print fiesta that works (something similar to 1981-82) seems possible. A similar environment and reaction occured in the early 80s when the government brute-forced a bull run using these same offset theorems but in that situation, Volker at the fed had interest rates at 21.5% and had 20% to come down to stimulate the inflationary reaction.
Long term this would just lever up more debt and expanded the real wealth gap over time because we kicked the can down the road another 15 years. If that happens again socioeconomically I don't see capitalism surviving (yeah Im on my high horse get over it). This is the option that many fiscal policymakers and talking heads abide by and the reason why the markets are green. However, it is really just kicking it down the road and expanding real wealth inequality. You think Bernie Sanders is bad, wait until homes cost $3million dollars in Kentucky and AOC Jr comes around.
If we get option 2, we see hyperinflation and we turn into Zimbabwe, which is great, I've always wanted to see Africa. Long term we could push interest rate back to 1980 Volker levels and slowly revalue the US against real value commodities already pegged to the USD like oil. This would be a short term shock but because of international reliance on the USD system, we could slowly de-lever this inflation over 2-3 years and be back to normal capacity although the markets would blow their O-ring. Recession yes, but no long term depression.
If we get option 3, the worst long term option in my opinion, basically any company with any revolver line drawn down when that hits is going to go under, private equity won't touch it with a 20ft stick because cashflows couldn't possibly handle the debt on the end of the lever, and we see mass long term unemployment. The only way out of the spiral of option three is inflationary pressure from the fed+government, but because we are already so far down the rabbit hole at the current moment there's no fucking way we could print another 10 trillion. USD treasuries couldn't handle the guh and we would essentially be functionally forced into a long term (7-10 year) depression because nothing anyone could do would delever the value of the dollar. This would result in the long term collapse of the United States as a world power and would render us like Russia in 1991.
Thank you for coming to my ted talk.
Forexsubmitted by Markets-Cube to u/Markets-Cube [link] [comments]
After reaching a two-week low of 1.1463 dollars, the euro recovered a ruble amount of 1.15 dollars and last year was trading at 1.1516 dollars. Against 1.1480 dollars at the end of Wednesday in New York, which is 0, 3% more. The yield on a ten-year German government bond is trading above 0.5%. The ICE Dollar Index was trading at 95.76.
Dow Jones recorded a record decline in 2 months, the Nasdaq fell 1.8%, and the S&P 500 fell by more than 0.8%. The technical sector has shown a slowdown since Facebook, Amazon, Alphabet (Google) and Netflix each recorded losses of at least 2%.
Bitcoin fell below 1%, exceeding the mark of 6500 dollars, while XRP recorded the greatest losses among all 10 main cryptocurrencies, dropping by more than 3.6%. EOS surpassed this trend, who registered profits.
Markets in the East followed the lead of Wall Street, as the Nikkei, Hang Seng, and China50 indices recorded losses. Banks in China remain closed due to a national holiday.
Oil prices rebounded from Iran’s sanctions
Yesterday, oil dropped from a 4-year high, after reports appeared that OPEC members and Russia would increase oil production.
Google launches Project Stream beta
Google is testing a new streaming service that will allow any PC to stream high-quality video games if they have a 25 Mbps Internet connection. The first game tested in the USA is Assassin's Creed: Odyssey.
Europe opens mixed
While FTSE opened 16 points higher, DAX and CAC opened almost smoothly.
Read more: https://www.facebook.com/294693984421347/photos/a.295490831008329/329725607584851/
Ruble Tumbles as US Sets Out New Sanctions on RussiaHere are some other articles about this story:
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CARACAS - Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said on Thursday his cash-strapped country would seek to "Free" itself from the U.S. dollar next week, using the weakest of two official foreign exchange regimes and a basket of currencies.
Maduro was refering to Venezuela's "DICOM" official exchange rate in which the dollar buys 3,345 bolivars, according to the central bank.
At the strongest official rate, one dollar buys just 10 bolivars, but on the black market the dollar fetches 20,193 bolivars, a spread versus the official rate that economists say has fostered corruption.
A thousand dollars of local currency bought when Maduro came to power in 2013 would now be worth $1.20.
"Venezuela is going to implement a new system of international payments and will create a basket of currencies to free us from the dollar," Maduro said in an hours-long address to a new legislative superbody, without providing details of the new mechanism.
"If they pursue us with the dollar, we'll use the Russian ruble, the yuan, yen, the Indian rupee, the euro," Maduro said.
US Dollar / Russischer Rubel (USD/RUB) ▸ Aktueller Wechselkurs, Devisenkurs, Kurs Daten & Charts im Überblick The ruble tumbled past 80 against the dollar, its weakest level since March as tighter lockdowns in Europe threatened demand for crude, Russia’s key export earner. The ruble has been under pressure for months amid fears of new sanctions, low oil prices and rising coronavirus cases. Concern that Joe Biden may crack down on Russia should he win this week’s U.S. presidential vote has ... This forex chart for US Dollar / Russian Ruble (USDRUB) is updated continuously during market hours. The USDRUB currency charts are available in bar chart and candlestick chart formats to help highlight price trends and price movement. Technical analysts will want check out the technical indicators and studies under the options menu. USD RUB (US Dollar / Russian Ruble) The US Dollar vs. the Russian Ruble pair is representing the two contradicting and rival economies and political systems in the world. This pair is very sensitive to the crude oil volatility as the Russian economy depends on the petroleum market greatly. The US Dollar, which is the most traded currency in the world, is considered to be very stable and safe ... USD/RUB: Aktueller US-Dollar - Russischer Rubel Kurs heute mit Chart, historischen Kursen und Nachrichten. Wechselkurs USD in RUB. Current exchange rate US DOLLAR (USD) to RUSSIAN RUBLE (RUB) including currency converter, buying & selling rate and historical conversion chart. US Dollar, EUR/USD, AUD/USD Talking Points: Today marks the Q3 close and the next two days bring a busy economic calendar . USD strength has shown in September but that’s been a change-of-pace ... A look at what lies ahead for the ruble, euro and dollar this year Market participants are braced for the turbulent 2020 year for obvious reasons. Investors are still fretted about the prospects ... The official currency of Russia is the Russian Ruble, which is denoted by the Forex symbol RUB and the currency symbol ₽. The Russian Ruble is also the official currency of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which are two partially recognised republics. The Ruble has been the nation’s currency since the days of the Russian Empire, and it was also legal tender throughout the period of the Soviet ... The dollar is down for a fourth consecutive day, with the DXY index posting a two-month low at 92.28 and EUR-USD rising to a 16-day high at 1.1878, extending the sharp rally from the 1.1603 low seen earlier in the week. USD-JPY printed a fresh eight-month low at 103.19. Expectations for a relatively lacklustre U.S. jobs report later have maintained momentum the dollar weakening theme. The ...
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Ruble Earning Site 2020, invest-company.net ===== There's one golden rule that you should always keep in mind and observe when you're investing: Never invest money that you can't afford to lose ... The US dollar started pushing down the Russian ruble. Analysts point out that it was the strong retail sales data released yesterday in the United States that boosted traders’ confidence in ... The Russian ruble hit a seven-week high against the dollar, while the offshore Chinese yuan rose to its highest in a month. The Turkish lira was consolidating just below the three-week highs it ... 25. 01. 2019 Official Exchange Rates Of The Russian Ruble (RUB)... (Information Source: The Central Bank of the Russian Federation) 1 AUD Australian Dollar to Russian Ruble RUB 1 GBP British Pound ... In Moscow, the ruble opened with a rise against the US dollar and the pair dropped to 60.21 from 60.60. Currency strategists expect the dollar-ruble pair to hit 60.10 levels. Moscow Exchange will ... Vier mögliche Szenarien sollen darstellen wie die Blockchain die Welt verändern könnte. Was denkt Ihr? ----- WICHTIGE INFOS! ----- Mehr Anzeigen - ***** BITTE ... So far, the dollar/ruble pair consolidated gains near the level of 69.42. In the coming days, the ruble will be backed up by the tax payment period in Russia with its peak on June 25. easy-forex, HOT Topic, USD/RUB, Russian Ruble - 11.11.14 easyMarkets. Loading... Unsubscribe from easyMarkets? Cancel Unsubscribe. Working... Subscribe Subscribed Unsubscribe 13.8K. Loading ... 8:18 Ruble / US Dollar #USDRUB The #Forex #Market is a weekly show in which I, Maria Salnikova, talk about the situation on the upcoming week in the Forex market for trading. # Currencies ... forex currency, forex strategy Forex Expert Advisor online currency exchange rate, Forex Indicator, Forex ruble chart forex online, dollar forex Forex,валютный рынок forexpf ru ...